Premonition
An Encyclopaedia of Occultism (1920)
An impressional warning of a future event. Premonitions may range from vague feelings of disquiet, suggestive of impending disaster, to actual hallucinations, whether visual or auditory. Dreams are frequent vehicles of premonitions, either direct or symbolical, and there are countless instances of veridical dreams. In such cases it is hard to say whether the warning may have come from an external source, as spiritualists aver, or whether the portended catastrophe may have resulted, in part, at least, from auto-suggestion. The latter is plainly the explanation of another form of premonition-i.e., the predictions made by patients in the magnetic or mediumistic trance with regard to their maladies. The magnetic subject who prophesied that his malady would reach a crisis on a certain date several weeks ahead, probably himself attended subconsciously to the fulfilling of his prophecy. Might not the same thing happen in " veridical" dreams and hallucinations? We know that a subject obeying a post-hypnotic suggestion will weave his action quite naturally into the surrounding circumstances, though the very moment of its performance may have been fixed months before. That the dreamer and hallucinated subject also might suggest and fulfil their premonitions, either directly or by telepathic communication of the suggestion to another agent, does not seem very far-fetched or improbable. Then there is, of course, coincidence. It is impossible but that a certain proportion of verified premonitions should be the result of coincidence. Possibly, also, such impressions, whether they remain vague forebodings or are embodied in dreams or otherwise, must at times be subconscious inferences drawn from an actual, if obscure, perception of existing facts. As such, indeed, they are not to be lightly treated. Yet very frequently premonitions prove to be entirely groundless, even the most impressive ones, where the warning is emphasized by a ghostly visitant.
What Has Changed in the Last Century
The Encyclopaedia of Occultism in 1920 already listed the sceptical options "coincenceidence" among them, alongside auto-suggestion and telepathy, and modern psychology has essentially kept the first and dropped the last. Precognition moved from anecdote into the laboratory with J. B. Rhine's card-guessing work at Duke from the 1930s, and after the 1966 Aberfan colliery disaster, when many people reported forewarnings, John Barker set up a British Premonitions Bureau in 1967 to collect predictions in advance; neither line of work produced results that convinced mainstream science. Today the phenomena the entry describes are usually explained by selective memory, hindsight bias and the sheer arithmetic of billions of dreams a night, and Daryl Bem's 2011 claims of experimental precognition became a textbook case of failed replication that helped trigger psychology's wider reproducibility reckoning. The one point the old text got right, and which survives, is its closing note that even the most vivid premonitions "prove to be entirely groundless."
Written for this edition, 2026.